Spinster Cheat Sheet: Hello Race Fans
By Dana Byerly, courtesy of Hello Race Fans, @helloracefans
The Spinster Stakes at Keeneland has been won by a fairly even mix of favorites and longshots in the last 10 years, with an average payout of just over $13 for a $2 win bet. Favorites have won four out of six times over the period with http://www.izzit.org/cheap/viagra-online-cheap.html three of those winning favorites in the past three years.
With this year's short field headlined by a talented morning line favorite who is undefeated this year, that trend might just continue. Or will it? Let's investigate!
1. Ria Antonia (10-1) - Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner has had an odd year. After finishing over 15 lengths behind the winner in the Kentucky Oaks, she ran in the Preakness. Not only did she finish last, she was ridden as a front runner when her best efforts have been from off the pace. Her best effort since has been a 2nd in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks with two 4th places finishes leading up to this spot. Perhaps the return of the blinkers will help as she wore them during the more successful part of her career but, as usual, she's in tough here.
2. Close Hatches (3-5) - It's hard to fault last year's 2nd place Distaff runner and morning line favorite as she's undefeated in four starts this year and has done well at this distance. While she's exhibited a flexible running style she looks to be the lone speed, a scenario that would be ideal for her to keep her 2014 winning streak alive.
3. Got Lucky (15-1) - The only other 3-year-old in the field aside from Ria Antonia, this Todd Pletcher trainee looks to improve on her "better than it looked" 5th in the Alabama last out. She trailed a slow field and came through on the inside to catch 5th, only 2 3/4 lengths behind well-regarded winner Stopchargingmaria. She's likely to get a zippier pace and will have fewer horses to navigate, which makes her logical for your exotics.
4. Shuruq (5-1) - Last year's UAE Oaks winner makes her first start in the U.S. and over the dirt surface. She spent the spring in Dubai where she won the Group 2 Al Maktoum Challenge and Group 3 Burj Naharr, both at one mile on the synthetics. Last out she won a Group 3 in Turkey at a mile. This accomplished, mid-pack running, international shipper adds some intrigue and glamor to the small field. She put in a solid work over the main track at Keeneland this week and could be an interesting upset prospect.
5. Don't Tell Sophia (9-2) - She'll give Close Hatches another shot after running a close 3rd behind her in the Grade 2 Azeri in the spring. She took a break and came back with a game in win in the Locust Grove last month. Her worktab indicates she's ready to give it a good shot, at the very least you should include her in your exotics.
6. Molly Morgan (5-1) - The Grade 2 Fleur De Lis and Grade 3 Gardenia winner is a flexible distance runner with wins at distances from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. She can also close in to a mild pace, which may not come in handy if the zippy Close Hatches goes to the front. Nonetheless she doesn't seem probable for an upset, but could certainly fill out the exotics.