Bourbon Million Dollar Finish Picks: ABR Ambassadors
Dixiana Bourbon Stakes analysis by Dan Tordjman: An impressive field of 2-year-olds line up for the Grade 3 $250,000 Bourbon Stakes, and what figures to be an excellent betting race. Most of the horses entered don't have nearly enough form going 1 1/16 miles on the turf so we'll factor in pedigree, works, and form to date. Let's take a look at what we do know and try to project how the race might unfold.
Danny Boy: Well-bred 2-year-old son of Harlan's Holiday, Danny Boy is a half to Meal Penalty who won the Arlington Classic going 1 1/16 on the turf. In his debut, Danny Boy rallied from way off the pace and cruised to a three-length victory without even being asked. The second place finisher in that race, Lawn Ranger, came back to win next out and returns to face him again here. Note that Corey Lanerie also jumps off challenger Majestico to ride this one.
Conquest Tsunamiy: Another really good looking colt by spectacular turf sire Stormy Atlantic. This horse won consecutive stakes races over the Polytrack at Woodbine before trying the turf for the first time, last out. He passed the test as the 1-9 favorite but he had to work for it. It's hard to knock a horse who's 4-for-4 but he'll likely see more pace pressure up front, while being asked to go 1 1/16 miles for the first time in his young career.
Can't Happen Here: Broke poorly on debut but was able to stay composed on the rail and shot through a seam mid-stretch to win. The second place finisher in the race was DQ'd but came back to win next out nonetheless. Chad Brown's barn is loaded with outstanding looking juveniles and this one is right up there with them. Like to see jockey Irad Ortiz in from New York and staying aboard.
Croninthebarbariany: Colt comes in off of two easy victories on the turf. Jockey has won with two of five mounts he's had for the barn at Keeneland. Not sure this horse can keep up with them but has looked good enough to use in exotics.
Chief Kitteny: Only because it's Keeneland and only because it's the Ramsey's and only because he's a Kitten's Joy. Okay, so there's a lot to like, but it's mostly based on the success rate of the connections at this venue. There's no doubting that this sire has passed down a lot of good traits to his progeny but the one thing that's hard to like is the short price that you're generally going to get. That said, would still use this horse underneath.
Selections: Danny Boy, Conquest Tsunami, Can't Happen Here, Croninthebarbarian, Chief Kitten
|Order of Finish||Jose Contreras||Vince Mathews||Dan Tordjman||Ciara Austin|
|1||Can't Happen Here||Croninthebarbarian||Danny Boy||Conquest Tsunami|
|2||Croninthebarbarian||Danny Boy||Conquest Tsunami||Majestico|
|3||Chief Kitten||Can't Happen Here||Can't Happen Here||Chief Kitten|
|4||Conquest Tsunami||Lawn Ranger||Croninthebarbarian||Thirtysilverpieces|
|5||Danny Boy||Chief Kitten||Chief Kitten||Croninthebarbarian|
|6||Majestico||Less Than Perfect||Lawn Ranger||Lawn Ranger|
|7||Lawn Ranger||Thirtysilverpieces||Majestico||Less Than Perfect|
|8||Less Than Perfect||Majestico||Less Than Perfect||Can't Happen Here|
|9||Thirtysilverpieces||Conquest Tsunami||Thirtysilverpieces||Danny Boy|