Making Money Betting I’m a Chatterbox in the Spinster
By Patrick Reed, courtesy of America's Best Racing
On Sunday, Keeneland Race Course will host the final two “Win and You’re In” qualifying races for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships on Nov. 4-5 at Santa Anita Park.
The Dixiana Bourbon Stakes drew a full field of 14 2-year-olds and two also-eligibles gunning for a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. On the other hand, the $500,000 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes, a “Win and You’re In” event for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, drew only five entrants, headlined by heavy favorite I’m a Chatterbox.
Both races will be televised on NBC with live coverage beginning at 5 p.m. ET.
I’m a Chatterbox (#3) already has a very impressive Grade 1 win this year in the 1 ¼-mile Delaware Handicap, but that was not an automatic qualifier for the Distaff. This appears to be an easy spot for the 4-year-old filly to punch her ticket to Santa Anita, where she will most likely face a much sterner test against the likes of Songbird, Stellar Wind, and Beholder. Regardless, I’m a Chatterbox has a clear edge over the other four horses in this field, having already decisively beaten what probably will be the second and third betting choices in the Spinster, Genre (#5) and Paid Up Subscriber (#1).
Both of those fillies have shown flashes of talent and have recent stakes wins on their résumés. Between the two, I give Paid Up Subscriber a slight edge in class as she picked up a sharp win on June 18 in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Handicap at Churchill Downs going 1 1/8 miles – the same distance as the Spinster – and then hung with I’m a Chatterbox for most of the Delaware Handicap before finishing second by 2 ¼ lengths.
Genre was defeated by I’m a Chatterbox by 8 1/2 lengths on June 11 at Delaware Park and comes into the Spinster off a career-best effort when winning a stakes race at Thistledown in Ohio. The top Equibase Speed Figures for Paid Up Subscriber (107) and Genre (108) approach I’m a Chatterbox’s best figure of 110, but I’m a Chatterbox is much more consistent.
I am limiting my bankroll to $15 in this race as the payoffs for all wagers are very likely to be modest, unless I’m a Chatterbox doesn’t finish in the top three. As to how the race will be run, I envision jockey Florent Geroux either putting I’m a Chatterbox on the lead or tracking just behind Genre, whose jockey, Javier Castellano, is very skilled at winning races on the front end. I think I’m a Chatterbox’s class will win out early in the stretch and she will pull clear of Genre, while Paid Up Subscriber makes a late run to finish second. Of the other two contenders, longshots Miss Pink Diva (#2) and Engaginglee (#4), the latter has some closing ability and posted a career-best effort in her last race, the Locust Grove Handicap at Churchill Downs. She could get into the exacta picture, but only if Genre and Paid Up Subscriber fail to fire.
Wagering Strategy A on a $15 budget:
$15 exacta: 3 with 1
Wagering Strategy B on a $15 budget:
$12 exacta: 3 with 1
$3 exacta: 3 with 4