Million Dollar Finish: Belmont Oaks All in Lady's Trip
By Peter Rotondo, Jr., @retro411
The Belmont Oaks is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win And You’re in the Filly and Mare Turf division.
5:00 pm - 6:00 pm ET
Let’s try to stay hot.
Fact: Lady Eli is special. Barring a rough trip, she should win. But ... this is horse racing and — more importantly — grass racing where most of the horses will be bunched up and simply sprint home the last quarter of a mile. So, while Lady Eli is best on paper that doesn’t mean she is a lock to win. Lady Eli will not be on the lead so she will have to work out a good trip. She also will be even money and has never been 1 1/4 miles ... let’s take a chance to beat her.
I’m using six of the 14 horses in my exotics bets (trifectas and superfectas).
Let’s work backwards ...
#7 - Consumer Credit — She was hampered by a slow pace last time and was simply outrun down the stretch. She still ran pretty fast so I can see her once again running late and possibly hitting the board.
#6 - Spanish Queen — She comes in off an impressive win in California. Her Beyer numbers are very high and she should run well, however I just don’t think the 3-year-old fillies based in California are as good as the East Coast fillies this year.
#14 - Strict Compliance — She has virtually done nothing wrong as she’s won at three tracks and three distances. Her post position isn’t great and she may find herself very wide and losing ground. I think she has enough talent to overcome the trip to run very well. I wouldn’t be surprised if she won and I do expect her to hit the board.
#12 - Daring Duchess — She ran huge last time with the addition of blinkers. She has shown glimpses of brilliance in a few of her starts with bursts of speed. I think she is getting better and she has the right connections to pull of an upset. She will be a big price and she is a must use in your exotic bets.
#2 - Lady Eli — She is simply brilliant. If she gets any type of trip, she should win. My gut is telling me she may shake loose too late and just run an “unlucky second.”
#11 - Sentiero Italia — She is getting better with every start and ran an explosive last quarter mile last time. She is has great breeding as her 1/2 brother was the super talented Ashkal Way. I think she’ll sit fourth or fifth with a free and clear trip on the outside and make a move before Lady Eli to try and open up before Lady Eli shakes free.
#11 - Sentiero Italia
#2 - Lady Eli
#12 - Daring Duchess
#14 - Strict Compliance
#6 - Spanish Queen
#7 - Consumer Credit
Note: #13 - Lady Zuzu — I think she’ll be sent to a clear lead by James Graham for Lukas. I’ve seen this movie a few times and it ends with a Lukas longshot going wire to wire at a huge price. You’ve been warned!
$101 Betting Strategy
$3 Exacta: 11/2-6-7-12-14 = $15
$2 Exacta: 2-6-7-12-14/11 = $10
$.50 Trifecta Partial: 2-11-12-14/2-6-11-12-14/2-6-7-11-12-14 = $32
$4 Trifecta Partial: 2-11/2-11/6-7-12-14 = $32
$1 Trifecta Partial: 11-12-14/2/11-12-14 = $6
$1 Trifecta key 13/2-11-12 = $6
Millon Dollar Finish
1. #11 - Sentiero Italia
2. #2 - Lady Eli
3. #12 - Daring Duchess
4. #14 - Strict Compliance
5. #6 - Spanish Queen
6. #7 - Consumer Credit
7. #1 - Pine Needles
8. #10 - Outstanding
9. #8 - Olorda
10. #13 - Lady Zuzu